Politics explain little in state-level differences in new COVID-19 cases and deaths

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By Kent R. Kroeger (Source: NuQum.com, June 23, 2020)

A state’s population density differentiate states on COVID-19

In reality, the dominant factor associated with the past month’s increases in new U.S. COVID-19 cases remains a state’s population density (see Figure 1 and the standardized coefficient column). That factor has been behind the state-level variations in coronavirus cases since the beginning of this pandemic and it is not something any governor or state legislature can control — which may be why the news media seems to ignore its role. It’s hard to blame Donald Trump for a state’s population density.

Data Source: Johns Hopkins University (CSSE); Data Analysis by Kent R. Kroeger (NuQum.com)
Data Source: Johns Hopkins University (CSSE)
Data Source: Johns Hopkins University (CSSE)
Data Source: Johns Hopkins University (CSSE)
Data Source: Johns Hopkins University (CSSE)

We should care most about the relative number of COVID-19 deaths

It is understandable that the media focuses on the number of new COVID-19 cases since states have loosened their lockdown policies (if they existed at all).

Data Source: Johns Hopkins University (CSSE); Data Analysis by Kent R. Kroeger (NuQum.com)

Arizona is the real anomaly in new COVID-19 cases since May 15th

The linear models summarized in Figures 1 and 3 allow us to identify states that don’t seem to fit the data very well. Number one on that short list is Arizona (see Figure 7) where our new COVID-19 cases model predicts the state should have seen 1,662 new cases (per 1 million people), but instead saw 5,687 new cases (per 1 million people) in the period between May 15 and June 21st.

Data Source: Johns Hopkins University (CSSE); Data Analysis by Kent R. Kroeger (NuQum.com)
Data Source: Johns Hopkins University (CSSE); Data Analysis by Kent R. Kroeger (NuQum.com)
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